I want to start an informal poll and maybe you can help me with that. Find an uribista (it can be yourself if you are one) and ask her (just to avoid a bunch of pronouns) if she agrees with the third term. If she says “yes,” end the poll. If she says “no” ask her if, in case Uribe is candidate (which looks likely), she will vote AGAINST Uribe or abstain.
My prediction is that we will start seeing over time a gradual tipping of “third-term-skeptics” toward Uribe come May. They will be saying “You know, I don’t like the idea of a third term, he shouldn’t have done that, but now that he’s running he really is the best candidate, the democratic security will be endangered if he loses, and Darth Vader will conquer Colombia. So, after much had-wringing, I’ll vote for him.” Who do I think will be in that list? Enrique Santos, for sure.
If you have any data points on this poll, please pass them along.