Nothing new for Plan Colombia 2 Terrorists in business suits
Feb 062007

Here are a few interesting things about the Bush administration’s proposal for U.S. aid to Latin America and the Caribbean next year. These are the result of moving all the information from the official request into one big spreadsheet. (Feel free to download a copy of that spreadsheet, but be warned it’s not very user-friendly.)

All numbers below are in thousands of dollars. Also, keep in mind that additional military assistance comes through the defense budget, particularly its counter-drug funding. While amounts of defense-budget aid are not made available right now, the amount of military aid the hemisphere receives could be significantly larger (as much as $200-$300 million more region-wide).


1. Aid to Latin America and the Caribbean would decline by 6 percent from 2007 to 2008, but the cut would come entirely from military – not economic – aid.

Western Hemisphere 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Military and Police Assistance $687,031 $588,309 14%
Economic and Social Assistance $1,015,347 $1,017,737 0%
Total Aid $1,702,378 $1,606,046 -6%


2. Despite talk of a "Plan Colombia 2," there is no sigificant change in the amount of aid to Colombia, or the proportions between military and economic aid. This was the subject of yesterday’s post. Here, again, is the Colombia aid table.

Colombia 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Economic Aid $129,920 0 -100%
Economic Support Funds 0 $139,500 ∞%
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $129,920 $139,500 7%
 
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Military Aid $334,861 $366,968 10%
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Critical Flight Safety $17,770 0 -100%
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Airbridge Denial $13,860 0 -100%
Foreign Military Financing $89,100 $78,000 -12%
International Military Education and Training $1,673 $1,500 -10%
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $457,264 $446,468 -2%
Total – Colombia Aid $587,184 $585,968 0%

3. Military and police aid to countries other than Colombia would drop by 38 percent.

Western Hemisphere minus Colombia 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Military and Police Assistance $229,767 $141,841 -38%
Economic and Social Assistance $885,427 $878,237 -1%
Total Aid $1,115,194 $1,020,078 -9%

4. The Foreign Military Financing program is drying up. This is the principal non-drug military aid program in the foreign aid budget. It fell into disuse in Latin America during the 1990s, but was revived after the September 11 attacks. In Colombia, it has paid for non-drug military-aid efforts like oil-pipeline protection and the "Plan Patriota" military offensive, among others. The FMF revival of the past few years appears to be over, however, as aid everywhere but Colombia and El Salvador is to be zeroed out.

Twelve countries in the region still cannot receive Foreign Military Financing because they do not exempt U.S. personnel on their soil from the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. They do not even appear in the table below.

Foreign Military Financing 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Bahamas $99 0 -100%
Belize $198 0 -100%
Chile $592 0 -100%
Colombia $89,100 $78,000 -12%
Dominican Republic $941 0 -100%
Eastern Caribbean $905 0 -100%
El Salvador $9,900 $4,800 -52%
Guyana $99 0 -100%
Haiti $988 0 -100%
Honduras $891 0 -100%
Jamaica $594 0 -100%
Nicaragua $594 0 -100%
Panama $990 0 -100%
Suriname $99 0 -100%
Western Hemisphere $3,960 0 -100%
Total – Foreign Military Financing $109,950 $82,800 -25%
Total Excluding Colombia and El Salvador $10,950 0 -100%

5. Several countries viewed as important to the "war on drugs" would see a significant drop in aid. Their presidents’ ideology appears to make little difference in the size of the cut. These countries are Bolivia, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru.

Bolivia is to see a drop in counter-drug military and police aid, though economic aid will only be reduced slightly. Of the four Andean countries listed here, Bolivia in fact will see the smallest overall cut in aid, measured as a percentage.

Bolivia 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Economic Aid $36,630 0 -100%
Child Survival and Health $17,233 $11,500 -33%
Development Assistance $10,091 $39,000 286%
Economic Support Funds $5,940 $17,000 186%
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $69,894 $67,500 3%
 
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Military Aid $42,570 $30,000 -30%
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Critical Flight Safety $12,200 0 -100%
International Military Education and Training 0 $188 ∞%
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement 0 $600 ∞%
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $54,770 $30,788 -44%
Total – Bolivia Aid $124,664 $98,288 -21%

Ecuador would see a remarkably sharp drop in both categories.

Ecuador 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Economic Aid $11,425 0 -100%
Development Assistance $6,578 $7,010 7%
Economic Support Funds $3,265 $6,000 84%
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $21,268 $13,010 -39%
 
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Military Aid $8,375 $7,000 -16%
International Military Education and Training 0 $187 ∞%
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement 0 $200 ∞%
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $8,375 $7,387 -12%
Total – Ecuador Aid $29,643 $20,397 -31%

Do not assume that Ecuador’s proposed aid cut is a signal of Washington’s attitude toward newly elected President Rafael Correa, a leftist who frequently criticizes the U.S. government. Aid to Mexico, which just elected pro-U.S., right-of-center President Enrique [Correction: Felipe] Calderón, would be cut by a similar proportion.

Mexico 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Child Survival and Health $3,990 $2,500 -37%
Development Assistance $11,357 0 -100%
Economic Support Funds $11,385 $14,000 23%
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $26,732 $16,500 -38%
 
International Military Education and Training $8 $388 4750%
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement $39,600 $27,816 -30%
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $39,608 $28,204 -29%
Total – Mexico Aid $66,340 $44,704 -33%

The picture is similar for Alán García’s Peru.

Peru 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Economic Aid $48,510 0 -100%
Child Survival and Health $14,213 $12,000 -16%
Development Assistance $9,369 $11,224 20%
Economic Support Funds $2,765 $30,000 985%
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $74,857 $53,224 -29%
 
Andean Counterdrug Initiative – Military Aid $58,410 $36,844 -37%
International Military Education and Training 0 $187 ∞%
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $58,410
$37,031 -37%
Total – Peru Aid $133,267 $90,255 -32%

6. Traditional economic aid programs are being sliced very deeply. The Development Assistance and Child Survival and Health programs would undergo painful cuts in the 2008 budget proposal.

The economic aid programs being increased are new initiatives that benefit only a few countries: Millennium Challenge (El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua), the Global HIV-AIDS Initiative (Guyana and Haiti), and Economic Support Funds (Cuba plus countries that currently – but would no longer – get economic aid through the Andean Counterdrug Initiative).

Development Assistance 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Belize 0 $200 ∞%
Bolivia $10,091 $39,000 286%
Brazil $2,899 0 -100%
Caribbean Regional $4,891 $4,310 -12%
Central America Regional $10,665 $6,700 -37%
Cuba $1,984 0 -100%
Dominican Republic $7,835 $11,100 42%
Ecuador $6,578 $7,010 7%
El Salvador $24,165 $11,475 -53%
Guatemala $10,504 $7,500 -29%
Haiti $29,700 $14,806 -50%
Honduras $20,604 $16,731 -19%
Jamaica $7,821 $7,391 -5%
Latin America and Caribbean Regional $71,738 $32,200 -55%
Mexico $11,357 0 -100%
Nicaragua $22,169 $13,700 -38%
Panama $200 0 -100%
Paraguay $4,385 $4,700 7%
Peru $9,369 $11,224 20%
South America Regional $1,485 $1,500 1%
Suriname 0 $200 ∞%
Venezuela 0 $3,000 ∞%
Total – Development Assistance $262,360 $197,052 -25%


Child Survival and Health 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Bolivia $17,233 $11,500 -33%
Brazil $3,605 $2,000 -45%
Caribbean Regional $6,435 $5,000 -22%
Central America Regional $6,167 $4,000 -35%
Dominican Republic $12,721 $7,500 -41%
El Salvador $8,144 $6,000 -26%
Guatemala $12,040 $12,500 4%
Haiti $19,801 $18,000 -9%
Honduras $13,140 $10,600 -19%
Jamaica $4,472 $1,221 -73%
Latin America and Caribbean Regional $8,317 $6,200 -25%
Mexico $3,990 $2,500 -37%
Nicaragua $7,699 $7,500 -3%
Paraguay $2,884 $1,300 -55%
Peru $14,213 $12,000 -16%
Total – Child Survival and Health $140,861 $107,821 -23%

7. While these programs suffer, economic aid to Cuba’s opposition would increase by more than $30 million. This despite concerns about the Cuba aid’s management and oversight, and the extent to which it is reaching and benefiting Cuban civil society.

Cuba 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Development Assistance $1,984 0 -100%
Economic Support Funds $8,910 $45,700 413%
Total – Cuba Aid $10,894 $45,700 319%

8. The largest increases, in dollars, would go to El Salvador, Cuba and Haiti.

El Salvador’s Millennium Challenge compact calls for a big increase in 2008, the third year of its grant. Other economic aid to El Salvador, however, is being cut deeply. Nonetheless, the Bush administration proposes to give El Salvador more economic aid in 2008 than it would give Colombia.

El Salvador 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Child Survival and Health $8,144 $6,000 -$2,144
Development Assistance $24,165 $11,475 -$12,690
Millennium Challenge $42,820 $133,970 +$91,150
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $75,129 $151,445 +$76,316
 
Foreign Military Financing $9,900 $4,800 -$5,100
International Military Education and Training $1,782 $1,680 -$102
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement 0 $800 +$800
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $11,682 $7,280 -$4,402
Total – El Salvador Aid $86,811 $158,725 +71,914

(See number 7 above for the Cuba table.)

Haiti would get a badly needed increase in funding from the Global HIV-AIDS Initiative.

Haiti 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Child Survival and Health $19,801 $18,000 -$1,801
Development Assistance $29,700 $14,806 -$14,894
Economic Support Fund $49,500 $63,394 +$13,894
HIV-AIDS $47,300 $83,000 $35,700
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $146,301 $179,200 +$32,899
 
Foreign Military Financing $988 0 -$988
International Military Education and Training $213 $200 -$13
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement $17,500 $9,000 -$8,500
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $18,701 $9,200 -$9,501
Total – Haiti Aid $165,002 $188,400 +$23,398

9. The largest cuts, in dollars, would come from Honduras, Peru and Bolivia.

Honduras will see less Millennium Challenge money in 2008, the fourth year of its five-year MCC grant. But other economic aid programs will not fill the gap. They would be cut here as elsewhere.

Honduras 2007 (continuing 2006 levels) 2008 Change
Child Survival and Health $13,140 $10,600 -$2,540
Development Assistance $20,604 $16,731 -$3,873
Millennium Challenge $79,230 $42,350 -$36,880
Subtotal – Economic and Social Assistance $112,974 $69,681 -$43,293
 
Foreign Military Financing $891 0 -$891
International Military Education and Training $1,218 $880 -$338
International Narcotics and Law Enforcement 0 $750 +$750
Subtotal – Military and Police Assistance $2,109 $1,630 -$479
Total – Honduras Aid $115,083 $71,311 -$43,772

(See number 5 above for the Bolivia and Peru tables.)

2 Responses to “Highlights of the aid request for Latin America”

  1. teo Says:

    How do you explain the El Salvador military/police aid cuts, when the U.S. government is making announcements left and right about new anti-gang programs and police training? Will those funds come out of Defense budgets?

    About these announcements, see:

    This press release. And there are others.

  2. Adam Isacson Says:

    Good question. The short answers are probably (1) Training and technical support don’t cost a lot of money, all of these initiatives taken together probably run $1 million or less; (2) Some of it might be trickling through the Justice Department budget (probably not Defense in this case); and (3) the more big-ticket aid is being cut because there’s no money for aid to countries that don’t begin with “I” and end in “Q”…

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